Three surveys and shaking Congress

The Congress party is shifting in its seat. Just a few days ago, it rejected election commissions ten point suggestion on transparency in elections, which included a ban on pre-poll surveys. Now it approves the move.

The change has come merely three surveys after. For sure BJP candidate Narendra Modi was giving the ruling party a headache due to his crazy rise in popularity charts, the surveys only aggravated Congress’ pain.

The India Today-ORG poll last week showed that Modi magic was on a rise. It gave Modi an even bigger majority in 2012 than in 2007, projecting a seat count of 128 (against 117 in 2007) on a lower vote share (47 percent vs 49 percent earlier).

The CNN-IBN poll steers clear of any seat projections and instead emphasises that Modi will simply get more votes than before. The CNN-IBN pre-poll opinion survey gives Modi a clear 50 percent of the vote, one percent higher than what he achieved in 2007. The Congress is set to hit rock-bottom again with a vote share of 36 percent, down from 38 percent.

To add to Congress’ dismay, the Times Now-CVoter poll sees the BJP emerging as the single-largest party with 162 seats. Also, the Economic Times poll with Nielsen, which concentrated on Uttar Pradesh and Bihar – which hold the key to 2014 – shows the BJP gaining ground. Nielsen predicts 44 seats for the BJP out of 120 in these two Hindi heartland states.

It should be noted that Congress fear for Modi has been reflected in many of its actions by now. But to reverse a decision would be a first in its bag.

However, the party should understand that these poll surveys are mere predictions which have come way too early before the 2014 fever sets up. In between there are many months which may change the dynamism of politics and yield results which may favour the Congress party.

Also, the sample size of the survey may or may not be able to gauge public opinion as it depends on many factors.

The party is yet to witness winter session of the parliament. Also, it has opened a big kitty for public and officials as well. Rather than going into a panic attack, it should wait and focus on better governance which will be the key to winning elections.